Nick Chubb may be cut by the Cleveland Browns this offseason in order to comply with the pay cap. However, there’s still a good probability the running back departs in 2025 even if they don’t.
For the Browns and Chubb, money is the main issue. The four-time Pro Bowler recently suffered a devastating knee injury that forced him to miss more than 14 games in his sixth NFL season. In 2024, he will begin the last season of a three-year, $36.6 million contract, which has a salary cap hit of more than $15.8 million.
In the modern NFL, many teams are paying far less on their top two or three running backs than Chubb’s deal reflects. Should Chubb have a successful season in 2024, he will likely fetch even another large contract.
In an article published on Tuesday, March 26, Alex Kay of Bleacher Report predicted players who may “reset the free agent market” at respective positions in 2025. Kay said that “despite [his] consistency, much of Chubb’s free agency value will be tied to how he fares after his knee injury.” “He might be in line for a big contract next spring if he can quickly get over his injuries and show that having two knee surgeries hasn’t had a significant negative impact on him.”
Browns Must Make a Tough Choice About RB Nick Chubb
Given Chubb’s approaching free agency, his most recent injury, the team’s salary cap position, and the composition of its star running back group, Cleveland finds itself in a very intriguing and challenging situation with him.
By giving Chubb an extension, the Browns can take free agency out of the picture and lock down the fan favorite for the foreseeable future. Depending on how Cleveland designs the deal, that choice may lower Chubb’s 2024 cap hit dramatically and keep his salary less burdensome for a season or two following.
But according to a February article by Zac Jackson of The Athletic, the team doesn’t anticipate having Chubb back to full strength until the second half of 2024. The Browns’ ability to assess the running back’s condition and extend a prudent, team-friendly offer is severely limited by that timeline.
Jerome Ford, who had a bit of a breakout season as a sophomore and is playing on a ridiculously cheap rookie deal for the next two years, is Cleveland’s plausible option for Chubb. Ford’s price-to-production ratio suggests that he is more valuable than Chubb, who was perhaps the finest running back in football for the last five years, but Ford will never be elite.
Chubb believes that placing a wager on himself could result in a payout similar to what he received in 2021. Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley just inked contracts worth at least $12 million a year throughout the summer.
Barkley accomplished this at the age of 27, despite suffering an ACL rupture in 2020 that prevented him from playing in 14 games and severely reduced his availability and output the following season. Chubb will participate in the upcoming campaign at the age of 28, which would place him in free agency the following offseason at 29.
In most cases, Browns running back Nick Chubb will reach free agency early next year.
It would be prudent for Chubb to advocate for a contract extension this summer as opposed to a restructure, which would divert guaranteed funds from his account and repackage them as incentives without providing additional guaranteed years in the future.
Refusing to participate in a restructure and pressing hard for an extension might lead to a new agreement that Chubb is happy with, but it could also mean that he gets released before the 2024 season. Unless Chubb shows he can play on the field, no team outside of his former affiliations is going to give him a large-scale contract until he does. In this case, the running back will probably sign a one-year prove-it contract and be eligible for free agency in 2025.
The move that Chubb wagers on himself has the running back consenting to a 2024 contract restructuring in Cleveland, which will allow him to keep a sizable portion of his guaranteed money while also providing the Browns with some much-needed cap relief. Then, midway through the season, Chubb makes a comeback and demonstrates that he is still the four-time Pro Bowler who earned one of the most lucrative RB contracts a few years prior, when the NFL as a whole was starting to devalue the position.
Cleveland may not necessarily be unhappy with that result. It does, however, position Chubb to become a free agent in 2025, when there won’t be as many elite running backs available on the market compared to this offseason, and Chubb will probably have a number of suitors eager to pay a high price for his services.
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